Courses taught in year 2024/25:

• Bachelor in Informatics and Business Administration (first term), subject: Introduction to Economics.
• Master in Economics (MUE, second term), subject: Quantitative Methods.
• European Master in Official Statistics (EMOS, second term), subject: Applied Econometrics.

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Education and Experience

• M.A. in Economics - Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Junio 1999.
• Ph.D. in Economics, Extraordinary Award, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, February 2005.
• Teaching assistant at the Quantitative Economics Department, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, september 2003 – october 2006.
• Assistant Professor at the Statistics and Econometrics Department, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, october 2006 – october 2008.
• Visiting Professor at the Quantitative Economics Department, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, october 2008 – april 2010.
• Associate Professor at the Quantitative Economics Department, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, from april 2010.
• Visiting Researcher at the University of Southern Denmark (Odense, Denmark), Spring-Summer 2014.
• Econometric Advisor to the Central Bank of Uruguay (2015-)
• Researcher at Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE).

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Publications

• "IFCI-SA: International financial conditions index for South American economies" with C. Brum-Civelli and A. Fried-Gindel. Research in International Business and Finance, © 2024, 72, Part A, 102507.

• "Identification of canonical models for vectors of time series: A subspace approach" with M. Jerez and J. Casals. Statistical Papers, © 2024, 65, 1493-1530.

• "Macroeconomic Forecasting Evaluation of MIDAS Models" with N. Bonino-Gayoso. In: Valenzuela, O., Rojas, F., Herrera, L.J., Pomares, H., Rojas, I. (eds) Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis. ITISE 2022. Contributions to Statistics. Springer, Cham, © 2023.

•  "Eurozone prices: A tale of convergence and divergence" with D. Guerrero and M.T. González-Pérez Economic Modelling, © 2023, 126 (106418).
  

• "A counterfactual analysis of the impact of the 2008 and 2020 crises on Spanish employment" with M. Jerez and A. Montealegre. Applied Economic Analysis, © 2023, 31(92), 109-125.

• "An indicator of monetary bias for emerging and partially dollarized economies: The case of Uruguay" with C. Brum-Civelli. International Review of Economics and Finance, © 2023, 85 (May), 206-219.

• "Forecasting unemployment with Google Trends: Age, gender and digital divide" with R. Mulero. Empirical Economics, © 2023, 65, 587-605.

• "Price convergence: Representation and Testing" with D. Guerrero. Economic Modelling, © 2021, 104 (105641).
  

• "Forecasting Spanish unemployment with Google Trends and dimension reduction techniques" with R. Mulero.

  SERIEs Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, © 2021, 12(3), 329-349.

• "TF-MIDAS: a transfer function based mixed-frequency model" with N. Bonino, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, © 2021, 91(10), 1980-2017.
  

• "Staking in sports betting under unknown probabilities: Practical guide for profitable bettors" with A. Barge-Gil. Journal of Sports Economics, © 2020, 21(6), 593-609.
  

• "Numeracy in Central New Spain during the Enlightenment" with A. Calderón and R. Dobado. Revista de Historia Económica/Journal of Latin American and Iberian Economic History, © 2020, 38(2), 369-403.

• "Del “real de a ocho” a los muchos pesos: plata, precios y tipos de interés en Hispanoamérica y el resto del mundo, 1750-1850" with A. Calderón and R. Dobado. Estudios de Historia Económica, © 2019, volume 75, Banco de España, Madrid.

• Calderón A., Dobado R., Garcia-Hiernaux A. Interest Rates and Silver Production: Credit in Mexico City Between Market and Spirituality (1770–1779 and 1819–1828). In: Pieper R., de Lozanne Jefferies C., Denzel M. (eds) Mining, Money and Markets in the Early Modern Atlantic, © 2019, Palgrave Studies in Economic History. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
• "Two Worlds Apart: Determinants of Height in Late 18th Century Central Mexico" with R. Dobado, Economics and Human Biology, © 2017, 24, 153-163.
• "Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution" with D. Guerrero and M. McAleer, Economic Modelling, © 2016, 52(2), 913-925.
  
• "West versus Far East: early globalization and the great divergence" with R. Dobado and D. Guerrero, Cliometrica, © 2015, 9(2), 235-264.
  
• "Portmanteau test based on subspace methods", Colombian Journal of Statistics, © 2013, 36(2), 221-235. Presented in the Computing in Economics and Finance Conference 2009, Sydney, Australia – Slides.

• "Some Considerations about Forecasting Aggregates and Disaggregates with Common Features" with M. Bujosa, International Journal of Forecasting, © 2013, 29(4), 733-735.
  

• "The Integration of Grain Markets in the Eighteenth Century: Early Globalization in the West" with R. Dobado and D. Guerrero, Journal of Economic History, © 2012, 72(3), 671-707. Additional material and analyses not included in the paper can be found here. Harvard Economic History Seminar presentation of this paper.

• "From general State Space to VARMAX models" with J. Casals and M. Jerez, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, © 2012, 80(5), 924-936.
  

• "Estimating the system order by subspace methods" with M. Jerez and J. Casals, Computational Statistics, © 2012, 27(3), 411-425.
  

• "Forecasting linear dynamical systems using subspace methods", Journal of Times Series Analysis, © 2011, 32(5), 462-468. Presented in the ISF 2009, Hong Kong, China – Proceedings.

• "Unit roots and cointegration modeling through a family of flexible information criteria" with M. Jerez and J. Casals, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, © 2010, 80(2), 173-189. – Presented in CEF 2008, Paris, Francia – Slides.

• "Índices de precios de tres ciudades españolas 1680-1800: Palencia, Madrid y Sevilla" with E. Llopis, H. García-Montero, M. González Mariscal, R. Hernandez, América Latina en la Historia Económica: Revista de investigación, © 2009, 32(2), 29-80.

• "Fast estimation methods for time series models in state-space form" with M. Jerez and J. Casals, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, © 2009, 79(2), 121-134.

• "Detección de raíces unitarias y cointegración mediante métodos de subespacios" with M. Jerez and J. Casals, Colombian Journal of Statistics, © 2007, 30(1), 77-96.

• "Empirical evidence for a money demand function: A panel data analysis of 27 countries in 1988-98" with L. Cerno, Applied Econometrics and International Development, © 2006, 6(1), 51-58.

• "Análisis Cualitativo del salario por hora en España" Estudios Económicos Regionales y Sectoriales, © 2002, 2(2), 7-22.

• "Prima de riesgo y volatilidad con un modelo GARCH-M" Revista Asturiana de Economía © 2001, 22, 142-152.

• "Identificación de series temporales económicas mediante métodos de subespacios"  Phd. Thesis. Advisors: Miguel Jerez and José Casals, © 2005, Servicio de Publicaciones de la UCM, ISBN 978-84-669-2978-3.

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Works in progress

• "Online Auction Markets before and during the Lockdown" (2023) with F. Álvarez and M. Sartarelli (submitted).
• "How to measure the inflation volatility. A Note" (2023) with D. Guerrero and M.T. González-Pérez, Banco de España working paper DT 2314 (submitted).
• "TF-MiDAS: Extensions and further results" (2023) with N. Bonino (In progress).

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Funded research projects

• 2023-2026. Main Researcher UCM in the project "Enfield: European Lighthouse to Manifest Trustworthy and Green AI". HORIZON-CL4-2022-HUMAN-02. Grant Agreement No. 101120657. Grant amount cca. € 11.5 M.
• 2019-2023. Researcher in the project "The fruits of early globalization: A Hispanic-American perspective". Main researcher Dr. Rafael Dobado González – PID2019-109435GB-I00 – Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación.
• 2016-2018 Researcher in the project “El mundo después del real de a ocho. La plata hispanoamericana tras la independencia, la primera crisis global en la década de 1820 y sus mecanismos de transmisión internacional”. Programa de Excelencia en Educación e Investigación del Banco de España: Ayudas a la investigación en macroeconomía, economía monetaria, financiera y bancaria e historia económica.
• 2012-2015. Main Researcher in the project "Integración de mercados de grano: Efectos sobre la globalización y la gran divergencia en Europa, Asia y América, 1700-1914" – Fundación Ramón Areces.
• 2011-2014. Researcher in the project "Técnicas de subespacios: Especificación y estimación de modelos de mínima parametrización y modelos de factores dinámicos". Main researcher Dr. Sonia Sotoca López – ECO2011-23972 – Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.
• 2008-2011. Researcher in the project "Precios y salarios en Hispanoamérica, 1700-1913. Una perspectiva comparada de largo plazo". Main researcher Dr. Rafael Dobado González – ECO2008-01989 – Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.
• 2008-2011. Researcher in the project "Aplicación de los métodos de subespacios: Análisis masivo de series históricas y datos financieros". Main researcher Dr. Miguel Jerez Méndez – ECO2008-02588 – Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.
• 2005-2008. Researcher in the project "Técnicas de subespacios: Aplicaciones a la modelización y desagregación de series temporales económicas". Main researcher Dr. Sonia Sotoca López – SEJ2005-07388/ECON – Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.
• 2005-2008. Researcher in the project "El crecimiento económico en la España moderna (1500-1800): Reconstrucción del PIB y los movimientos migratorios de la población". Main researcher Dr. Enrique Llopis Angelán – SEJ2005-05070/ECON – Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia.
• 2004-2010. Researcher in the project “Análisis del mercado de trabajo y la inflación: Un estudio detallado de las 17 CCAA.” Main researchers Dr. Alfonso Novales Cinca and Carlos Sebastián Gascón, CAJA ESPAÑA de Inversiones, Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad.
• Researcher in research group "Técnicas de Subespacios: Aplicaciones a las series temporales económicas". Main researcher Dra. Sonia Sotoca López – Universidad Complutense - Comunidad de Madrid, 2007-2008.
• Researcher in research group "Econometría en Espacio de los Estados". Main researcher Dra. Sonia Sotoca López – 940223 – Universidad Complutense - Comunidad de Madrid, 2006-2007. 

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