Nuevas publicaciones internacionales del GFAM
Abstract:
This work analyzes the consequences of climate change in the distribution of the Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation. A study area was chosen at the Sierra de Guadarrama, in the center of the Iberian Peninsula (1,795 to 2,374 m asl). Climate change was analyzed from the record of 18 variables regarding temperature, rainfall and snowfall over the period 1951–2000. The permanence of snow cover (1996–2004), landforms stability and vegetation distribution in 5 years (1956, 1972, 1984, 1991 and 1998) were all analyzed. The Nival Correlation Level of the different vegetation classes was determined through their spatial and/or temporal relationship with several climatologic variables, snow cover duration and landforms. In order to quantify trends and major change processes, areas and percent changes were calculated, as well as Mean Annual Transformation Indices and Transition Matrices. The findings reveal that in the first part of the study period (up to the first half of the 1970s) the temperature rise in the mid-winter months caused the reduction of some classes of nival vegetation, while others expanded, favored by high rainfall, decrease in both maximum temperatures and summer aridity, and longer snow cover duration. The second part of the study period was characterized by the consolidation of the increase in all thermal variables, along with an important reduction in rainfall volume and snow cover duration. As a result, herbaceous plants, which are highly correlated with a long snow permanence and abundance of melting water, have been replaced by leguminous shrubs which grow away from the influence of snow, and which are steadily becoming denser.
- Bollschweiler, M. Stoffel, M. Vázquez- Selem, L., Palacios, D. (2010) Tree-ring reconstruction of past lahar activity at Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico. The Holocene 20 (2): 265-274. DOI: 10.1177/0959683609350394
Abstract:
Lahars represent a major threat on the slopes of volcanoes all over the world. In order to realistically assess hazards, knowledge on the occurrence and timing of past lahar activity is of crucial importance. However, archival data on past events is usually scarce or completely missing. Tree-ring records have repeatedly proved to be a reliable data source for the reconstruction of past geomorphic events. However, tree rings have seldom been applied for the identification of past lahars. Therefore, it was the aim of this study: (i) to identify and describe disturbances in tree growth induced by well-documented lahar events and on this basis; and (ii) to recognise older, unknown lahar events with tree-ring analyses. Based on these goals, we collected 140 tree-ring series from 62 trees (Abies religiosa, Pinus hartwegii and Pinus ayacahuite) standing inside or adjacent to the lahar channel in the Huiloac gorge at Popocatépetl volcano, central Mexico. Most commonly, the known lahar events of 1997 and 2001 resulted in abrupt changes in tree-ring width as well as injuries. The same growth disturbances could be identified in the tree-ring series, indicating that five previously unknown lahar events would have occurred during the 20th century. Popocatépetl is one of the best surveyed volcanoes in the world and past eruptions are precisely noted in archives. As most of these unknown events occurred during periods with no volcanic activity, we believe that they were rainfall-induced rather than related to volcanic activity. In order to assess rainfall intensity threshold values for the triggering of events, the analyses of meteorological data needs to be integrated. In general, the investigated tree species proved to be highly suitable for the reconstruction of mass-movement processes. Therefore, the applied methods can be transferred to other locations where data on past events are missing.
Abstract:
Lahars are hazardous events that can cause serious damage to people who live close to volcanic areas; several were registered at different times in the last century, such as at Mt St Helens (USA) in 1980, Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) in 1985 and Mt Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1990. Risk maps are currently used by decision-makers to help them plan to mitigate the hazard-risk of lahars. Risk maps are acquired based on a series of tenets that take into account the distribution and chronology of past lahar deposits, and basically two approaches have been used: (1) The use of Flow Simulation Software (FSS), which simulates flows along channels in a Digital Elevation Model and (2) The Geochronological Method (GM), in which the mapping is based on the evaluation of lahar magnitude and frequency. This study addresses the production of a lahar risk map using the two approaches (FSS and GM) for a study area located at Popocatépetl volcano – Central Mexico. Santiago Xalitzintla, a town located on the northern flank of Popocatépetl volcano, where volcanic activity in recent centuries has triggered numerous lahars that have endangered local inhabitants, has been used for the case study. Results from FSS did not provide satisfactory findings because they were not consistent with lahar sediment observations made during fieldwork. By contrast, the GM produced results consistent with these observations, and therefore we use them to assess the hazard and produce the risk map for the study area.
Abstract:
Lahars represent a major threat on the slopes of volcanoes all over the world. In order to realistically assess hazards, knowledge on the occurrence and timing of past lahar activity is of crucial importance. However, archival data on past events is usually scarce or completely missing. Tree-ring records have repeatedly proved to be a reliable data source for the reconstruction of past geomorphic events. However, tree rings have seldom been applied for the identification of past lahars. Therefore, it was the aim of this study: (i) to identify and describe disturbances in tree growth induced by well-documented lahar events and on this basis; and (ii) to recognise older, unknown lahar events with tree-ring analyses. Based on these goals, we collected 140 tree-ring series from 62 trees (Abies religiosa, Pinus hartwegii and Pinus ayacahuite) standing inside or adjacent to the lahar channel in the Huiloac gorge at Popocatépetl volcano, central Mexico. Most commonly, the known lahar events of 1997 and 2001 resulted in abrupt changes in tree-ring width as well as injuries. The same growth disturbances could be identified in the tree-ring series, indicating that five previously unknown lahar events would have occurred during the 20th century. Popocatépetl is one of the best surveyed volcanoes in the world and past eruptions are precisely noted in archives.As most of these unknown events occurred during periods with no volcanic activity, we believe that they were rainfall-induced rather than related to volcanic activity. In order to assess rainfall intensity threshold values for the triggering of events, the analyses of meteorological data needs to be integrated. In general, the investigated tree species proved to be highly suitable for the reconstruction of mass-movement processes. Therefore, the applied methods can be transferred to other locations where data on past events are missing.
Abstract:
Lahars are debris flows of volcanic origin, which can endanger or even destroy communities located near the flanks of volcanoes. Lahars are not always triggered by eruptions; they can form during heavy rainfall or after hydrothermal alteration and volcanic edifice collapse. Decision makers need lahar hazard maps to devise hazard prevention measures that will prevent casualties, so lahar modelling is an important tool for assessing flow behavior and determining inundation areas.
The depth integrated numerical model used in this study is derived from the velocity–pressure of the Biot–Zienkiewicz model and was discretized using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method to simulate a lahar that occurred at Popocatépetl volcano in 2001. In order to investigate the convergence of the model, we used a range of different SPH mesh resolutions. Once the optimum mesh resolution was bounded, we analyzed the model"s sensitivity to the initial lahar volume, the density of the geomaterial, and the rheological parameter of the Bingham fluid. The results show that the SPH depth integrated model produced a highly accurate simulation of the distribution and velocity of the 2001 lahar. The study also shows the effects of SPH mesh resolution and the relevant influence of rheological parameters.
Abstract:
The study area is located in the Sierra de Gredos, a portion of the Sistema Central range of central Spain, specifically in the Gredos Gorge, on the north side of Pico Almanzor (2596 masl), where glacial forms are present down to an altitude of 1410 m, 10 km from the headwall. This paper presents cosmogenic 36Cl surface exposure dates of four closely spaced lateral moraine ridges within the area of maximum advance of the ancient glacier, 8 km from the headwall; and two glacially polished bedrock thresholds 3 and 5 km from the headwall. The dates are overall coherent and indicate a maximum advance at 26–24 ka. Subsequently the glacier front stabilized around its maximum position for 3 ka, with small scale fluctuations resulting in small, closely spaced moraines ridges. Glacier recession began after 21 ka, accelerating sharply by 16 ka. The glacier had probably disappeared from the Gredos Gorge by 15 ka. There are no traces of older or more recent moraines than those dated in this study. These results are in agreement with the well known late Pleistocene climatic evolution of the Northern Atlantic and with the glacial chronology of the Alps and other Mediterranean mountains. However, the Gredos Gorge has no geomorphic evidence of the Younger Dryas cold event, probably because of the low altitude and southern character of these mountains.